Miami Show conversations…
Feb 18, 2025
I am writing this Editor’s Message from the Miami International Boat Show on Valentine’s Day, February 14 2025. I’ve been attending this show for many years. I’ve been fortunate to have met and become professional friends with many key industry people over that time and this year has been a more warm and friendly year than ever. But the kind sentiment seems to be coming from sympathy. People have heard or read about the tariff threats against Canada and other American trading partners. Everyone I spoke to is concerned, sympathetic and uncertain about the future.
The threats of tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum have expanded into threats of tariffs on all of America’s trading partners globally. News at this point is that these very broad tariffs may become reality in another 30-days.
Will they actually be enacted? There’s the carrot and the stick…we have enjoyed the carrot for decades, trading freely with the United States to what I think has been everybody’s benefit. But the stick would be the tariffs and while those could be very bad, even devastating, I’m starting to feel that the threat has more value than the punishment. Once enacted, the threat is over and the damage is done. Then the retaliation might as well happen and broadly-based retaliation by America’s trading partners could come as a major shock to Americans. The EU has already reacted to universal reciprocal tariffs and it sounds like they will take a firm stand.
I have now read opinion pieces from several authoritative sources, some blaming our governments for the situation we seem to be in, some wanting to negotiate, some wanting to hit back aggressively.
Before this latest universal tariff situation was announced, Pierre Poilievre and Canada’s Conservative party enjoyed a solid lead in the polls over the Liberals, but now the question has swung to who would be the best leader to deal with the Trump government. That is now looking like Mark Carney could be the pick. But it’s early still and I feel that most people are focused on today’s news, not future ramifications.
Stepping back from the stress of the recent events, I think it would be best to see the big picture. The Trump administration can attack with the stroke of an Executive Order. That sends us into a tailspin but I think that at least for the short term, Canada can withstand a few hits. We have successful businesses. Our customers are successful people who own summer waterfront properties and private boats, large and small. Summer will arrive this spring and our customers will want to go boating. The painful exchange rate will probably keep them here this summer, not down in Florida. We might even benefit.
When Trump has said he will invoke the tariffs, the stock market sells off. Keep that in mind. Trump is a master at campaigning with OPM – other people’s money. His billionaire supporters will react hard and fast when tariff threats cause the Dow or the NASDAQ to take a dive.
He makes the threat, the market dives and he gives us a reprieve. It’s a terrible way to live but I suspect that may become the pattern. Americans will tire of this pretty fast too. For example, the steel and aluminum tariffs will be devastating for the American auto industry. Keep in mind that cars are built and shipped all around the world. There is no guarantee that Detroit will be a winner.
The world is a fiendishly complicated place and Trump tariffs are a simple and blunt tool.
For Canadians, I feel that our own situation is the thing that’s critical. We need a fully functioning government right now. It’s a disgrace that Trudeau has prorogued our government when we need it most. When it finally comes to the next election, I think that the question Canadians will need to grapple with is not who can take on Trump, but who can grab control of Canada to make us resilient to future aggression.
For the Canadian marine industry, we must support our associations, support the marine schools and the techs, and look to maintaining our numerous revenue streams; service, storage, fuel, maybe boat rental as well as sales in parts and accessories – there’s a lot more than just new boat sales to keep the industry going. That’s where to put the love this Valentine’s Day.
Andy Adams – Editor
