Preparing for Potential Changes in U.S. Administration

Aug 13, 2024

Originally published by NMMA Canada

As we approach the U.S. presidential election, the potential for significant changes in American policy looms on the horizon. In just over 100 days, Americans will choose their next president, and the race is turning out to be one of the most unusual in history. President Biden has recently announced his withdrawal from the race, with Vice-President Kamala Harris stepping in to run in his place.

One of the key elements under discussion in the political sphere is Project 2025: A Presidential Transition Project. Organized by The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank, this project outlines what the next conservative administration might look like.

Although former President Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, his close allies and former administration officials are heavily involved in it. This plan, which includes a detailed policy agenda, personnel strategies, training programs, and a 180-day playbook, could significantly impact Canada, especially in areas like environment, energy, defense, and trade.

Why is This Important for Canada?

Project 2025’s policy agenda, entitled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,” spans 922 pages and outlines hundreds of policy recommendations for U.S. governmental departments and agencies. The fourth pillar of this agenda, focused on defending national sovereignty, borders, and resources, has direct implications for Canada. Here’s a closer look at how these changes could affect us:

Environment:

• EPA Reorganization: Project 2025 proposes major changes to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which include cutting environmental justice programs, terminating low-value programs, and eliminating unauthorized regulatory inputs like the social cost of carbon.
• Impact on Canada: These changes could disrupt cross-border environmental regulations, affect pollution control efforts, and impact climate change initiatives. Canada may need to bolster its environmental policies to counter these effects.

Energy:

• Department of Energy (DOE) Changes: The plan includes renaming and refocusing the DOE, repealing key acts like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and eliminating numerous clean energy programs.
• Impact on Canada: The repeal of the IRA, which has significant implications for clean energy investments, could force Canada to adjust its own clean economy strategies. This might affect our auto manufacturing sector, traditional energy sector, and emerging clean energy industries.

Defense:

• Increased Burden-Sharing: Project 2025 recommends that NATO allies, including Canada, should take on more conventional defense responsibilities while relying on the U.S. primarily for nuclear deterrence.
• Impact on Canada: Canada may need to increase its defense spending and contributions to NATO, which could impact our budget and defense policies.

Trade:

• Trade Agreement Changes: The plan includes limiting trade-unrelated provisions in agreements, repealing the Jones Act, ending Section 232 tariffs, and potentially closing the Export-Import Bank.
• Impact on Canada: These changes could affect the management of trade relations and regulatory coherence between Canada and the U.S., impacting our economic interactions and supply chains.

What’s Next for NMMA Canada Members?

NMMA Canada is closely monitoring these developments and preparing for potential shifts in U.S. policy that could affect our industry. We understand the importance of staying informed and proactive in our advocacy efforts.

Stay Engaged and Informed

As we navigate these uncertain times, we encourage our members to stay informed about political developments in the U.S. and how they might impact our industry. NMMA Canada remains committed to advocating for policies that support the recreational boating sector and ensure a favorable economic environment.